---
title: Why the Runway Formula Lies When You're Growing
description: Cash divided by burn assumes next month looks like this month. How to work out your runway when revenue is growing, hiring is coming, or spending is lumpy.
image: https://blog.ursaconsultants.com/hubfs/featured-runway-formula-lies.png
---

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Cash & Runway Series · Post 2

# Why the Runway Formula Lies *When You're Growing*

Cash divided by burn assumes next month looks like this month. How to work out your runway when revenue is growing, hiring is coming, or spending is lumpy.

**Ursa Consultants**Startup Finance4 min read

The short answer

Cash divided by burn assumes next month looks like this month. It never does. If your revenue is growing, your real runway is longer than the formula says. If you're about to hire four people, it's shorter — and that's the dangerous direction. The fix: forecast month by month instead. List the cash coming in and going out for each of the next 12 to 18 months, run your bank balance down the page, and find the month it hits zero.

The asymmetry

## The two errors don't cancel out

### When revenue is growing

If your revenue grows 8% a month, your burn a year from now is much lower than today's. The formula is being pessimistic. Fine.

The error that flatters you

### When hiring is coming

If you're hiring four engineers in the summer, your burn is much higher. The formula is being optimistic — and that's the one that hurts, because the error gets bigger exactly as your cash gets smaller.

The error that hurts

Most companies are doing both at once, so founders assume it evens out. It doesn't. Hiring shows up immediately and all at once. Revenue shows up slowly, and usually late.

> The error that flatters you arrives right on schedule. The one that would have saved you arrives whenever it feels like it.

The trap

## It also catches anyone pulling a lever

Say you move some customers to paying for a year upfront. Your cash goes up. Your monthly collections go down. The simple formula sees the first part and misses the second.

That's how “we just bought ourselves three months” turns into “we bought one.”

The build

## How to build the version that works

1. **Forecast the cash coming in, month by month.** Cash landing in your bank — not what you sold, not what your accountant recognised as revenue.
2. **Forecast the cash going out, month by month.** Put the hiring plan in. Put the lumpy stuff in — annual insurance, tax payments, equipment, the audit — on the actual months they hit.
3. **Run your bank balance down the page,** month after month.
4. **Find the month it goes negative.** Write down the date, not the number of months.
5. **Redo it every month with real numbers.** Your forecast will be wrong. Fixing it is where the value is.

Edge case one

## If you're pre-revenue

Don't put sales projections into your runway number. Put them in a separate, optimistic scenario where they belong.

> A runway number that depends on money you haven't earned isn't a forecast. It's a hope with a spreadsheet wrapped around it.

Edge case two

## If your spending is lumpy

Quarterly taxes. The annual insurance bill. Seasonal inventory. That one legal thing.

A three-month average hides all of it, right up until the month it doesn't. Put those items on the months they actually land, and keep the average for spotting the trend.

![](data:image/png;base64,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)

Key takeaway

Cash ÷ burn is a snapshot that breaks the moment anything changes — and hiring breaks it in the direction that hurts. Forecast month by month, find the date your balance goes negative, and redo it monthly with real numbers.

## Not sure what your real runway is?

Building the month-by-month version off your actual numbers is exactly what we do. Talk to Ursa at [info@ursaconsultants.com](mailto:info@ursaconsultants.com).

[Talk to Ursa](mailto:info@ursaconsultants.com)

![Ursa Consultants bear mark — ursa-bear.png](data:image/png;base64,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)

Written by Ursa Consultants

Fractional finance for founders — service, integrity, commitment. We build and run the forecasts in this series for startups every week. [info@ursaconsultants.com](mailto:info@ursaconsultants.com)

[Skip to content](https://blog.ursaconsultants.com/blog/why-the-runway-formula-lies-when-youre-growing#main-content)

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# Why the Runway Formula Lies When You're Growing

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September 30, 2026

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## Keep reading

### [Scale Without the Scars: How Outsourced Partners Keep You Safe When Everything’s Shaky — Ursa Consultants Inc](https://blog.ursaconsultants.com/blog/blog/how-outsourced-partners-keep-you-safe-when-everythings-shaky)

### [The Future of Startups: the Importance of Building Community and Culture — Ursa Consultants Inc](https://blog.ursaconsultants.com/blog/blog/the-future-of-startups-the-importance-of-building-community-and-culture)

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